MLB best bets: Props, predictions, picks for Friday 5/17 

Pirates vs. Cubs

Friday, May 17, 2:20 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Paul Skenes Over 14.5 Outs (-145, Bet365)

By Sean Paul

We saw the first outing of general pitching prospect Paul Skenes last Saturday against these same Cubs.

Skenes finished with four innings, seven strikeouts and an uncharacteristic six hits on 74 pitches. Sure, Skenes is pitching at the highest level, so it’s not surprising the Cubs made him work.

The Pirates went deep into their bullpen to secure the win over the Cubs on Friday, which could lead to a deeper outing from Skenes.

My best bet for Friday is Skenes over 14.5 outs. All the bettor needs is for Skenes to pitch five innings, and the Pirates will want their prized prospect to pitch deeper into games.

Skenes probably won’t pitch more than five or six innings, but just going five innings feels like a strong bet in Skenes’s second career outing. The key for the Pirates young starter is limiting walks. The 21-year-old throws gas and strikes out many batters but typically limits walk. It's both good and bad to strike batters out — it’s impressive to throw 100+ most of the time and make professional hitters look amateur. However, working up a higher pitch count is a given due to his propensity for generating swings and misses.

In his second career outing, skenes should limit the walks and work deeper into the game.

Pick: Paul Skenes Over 14.5 Outs (-145)

• Bet Pirates vs Cubs at bet365 with our bet365 bonus code.

Nationals vs. Phillies

Friday, May 17, 6:40 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Jake Irvin Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+102, FanDuel)

By Tony Sartori

Washington hands the ball to right-hander Jake Irvin on Friday evening, and he should be a good fade candidate. He has gotten off to a good start this season, posting a 3.55 ERA and 1.09 WHIP through his first eight starts.

However, regression is looming for Irvin as he ranks in the 25th percentile or lower among qualified pitchers in xERA, xBA allowed, average exit velocity allowed, barrel rate allowed and hard-hit rate allowed. Specifically, we will fade the right-hander in the strikeout market as he ranks in the 32nd percentile or lower in chase, whiff and strikeout rates.

You can find Irvin's strikeout prop at 4.5 with the under returning even money.

It's worth noting that he has failed to surpass that total in three of his past four starts. That trend will likely continue against Philadelphia, a team with the 11th-lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.

Pick: Jake Irvin Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+102)

Mariners vs. Orioles

Friday, May 17, 7:05 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Mariners F5 +0.5 (-130, FanDuel)

By John Feltman

The Mariners kick off a three-game set in Baltimore on Friday evening, and Bryce Miller will get the start.

After a rough start to the season, the M's have played terrific baseball to get themselves in position to chase an AL-West Division crown.

The Orioles send southpaw Cole Irvin to the mound, who is familiar with the Mariners. The O's have won the battle, as Irvin is 0-6 lifetime against Baltimore with an ERA over 7.00.

Irvin pitches to contact with around a 50% ground ball rate. This is good news for the Mariners, who are among the league leaders in strikeouts per game.

The current Mariner hitters are hitting .212 against Irvin lifetime, but I still have enough faith that they can score some runs early. The O's offense is loaded, but Miller is the type of pitcher who can mow them down. Miller has 51 Ks in 47 IP thus far and has a 0.95 WHIP.

I would rather focus on the Miller vs. Irvin matchup than take the Mariners full-game money line.

Pick: Mariners F5 +0.5 (-130)

Mets vs. Marlins

Friday, May 17, 7:10 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
F5 Under 4.5 (-154, FanDuel)

By John Feltman

The Mets head down to South Beach to take on the Miami Marlins and open a three-game set on Friday evening. Christian Scott gets his third start of the year for the Mets and will battle Jesus Luzardo and the Fish.

Scott has been a pleasant surprise for the Mets, as the 24-year-old right-hander dominated the minors before his big-league promotion.

Through two starts, it appears that Scott is no fluke thus far.

Luzardo returned from the IL last week against the Phillies and looked like his old self. His 5.79 ERA is not indicative of his body of work.

In his career, Luzardo has been a much better pitcher at home than on the road. Now, he gets to face a struggling Mets lineup in a game in which he should thrive.

The Mets are hitting .247 against Luzardo in 77 at-bats, and their inconsistency at the plate is a significant cause for concern. We all know the Marlins story by now, as they have been one of the worst offenses in baseball to start the season.

Both bullpens can't be trusted, so I'll happily trust Scott and Luzardo to hold these offenses at bay through five innings.

Pick: F5 Under 4.5 (-154)

Brewers vs. Astros

Friday, May 17, 8:10 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Brewers ML (-108, FanDuel)

By D.J. James

Hunter Brown is one of the many reasons the Houston Astros have stumbled out of the gates.

His 7.79 ERA should be closer to his 4.36 xERA, but he has to iron out a series of issues before landing on his feet as a solid starter. His average exit velocity allowed is over 90 mph. And even though he induces more ground balls than most, it's not sustainable. Additionally, his 11.4% walk rate is cause for concern, especially alongside his average strikeout numbers.

His opponent will be Freddy Peralta and the Milwaukee Brewers.

Peralta is the rock of the Brew Crew rotation. Walks can sometimes be an issue for him, but otherwise, he boasts a sub-4.00 ERA and xERA. His 31.9% strikeout rate is elite. His average exit velocity allowed is under 86 mph.

The bats are also a significant difference. Milwaukee has a 108 wRC+ off righties in the last month. They tend to hit the ball on the ground but are above average and will battle a below-average starter.

The Astros have a 97 wRC+ off of righties in the last month. They do not strike out or walk much, but Peralta should manufacture outs, as usual.

Milwaukee’s bullpen has taken a step back in the last month. Houston’s is better, but Peralta can pitch deep enough into this game that it will not matter much.

Take the Brewers as slight road favorites.

Pick: Brewers ML (-108 | Play to -133)

Reds vs. Dodgers

Friday, May 17, 10:10 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Reds F5 +0.5 (+120, FanDuel)

By John Feltman

The Reds got off to a terrific start in their series against the Dodgers last night, led by Elly De La Cruz's 4-for-4 night with 4 stolen bases.

Tonight, they send Frankie Montas to the bum, who is looking to rebound after a tough outing in his last start.

James Paxton gets the ball for the Dodgers and is a monster regression candidate. Paxton owns a 2.58 ERA, but his xFIP is more than double that.

He is only striking out 5.5 batters per nine innings but walking almost six. That is outrageously bad, and it is only a matter of time before the cat is out of the bag.

The Dodgers are a great team. Many presume they will bounce back after last night's lackluster performance. But I'm looking to fade them at all costs with Paxton on the mound.

Given that we are getting plus money on the Reds being tied after five innings is insanity. They can be too free-swinging, but they have plenty of offensive firepower to make Paxton pay in the early going.

I love the Reds to keep the game tied or better after the 5th, and I will definitely target their team total for the full game as well.

Pick: Reds F5 +0.5 (+120)